Saturday, 24 November 2007

Coalition to sneak home in Australian election with the help of miners and old folk

Nobody has ever accused me of not being ready to give my opinion on the big issues. This time, I'm really putting my neck on the line by giving the election to the government, as I have since it was called. My seat count is as follows:
Coalition   76
Labor 72
Independent 2
All of the polls show a Labor victory with only the Galaxy poll giving the government a chance. That's handy, as Galaxy has proved itself to be the most reliable of the forecasters. On the flip side, the betting markets always tend to prove accurate - with the famous exception of the Kennett government's loss - and Portlandbet's seat by seat market has it Labor 82, Coalition 66, Independent 2.

There is one parameter that has gone largely unreported in this election cycle - the grey vote. It is my understanding that the old folk stopped answering the phone or opening the door some weeks ago in what is the most polled election in history.

The grey vote tends to go to the Coalition. If it breaks Labor's way then there's no hope of the government being returned.

My calculation is that the grey vote will go with the Coalition.

It's not guaranteed that Labor will pick up any seats in Victoria. If the grey vote goes as predicted then that should be enough to maintain the status quo.

The Coalition may well pick up a seat in WA. Even so, it's very likely that they'll retain their numbers there on the back of the mining boom. Never has the phrase "Go west to make your fortune" been more true.

I still think that Queensland is problematic for Labor and, again, I think it's the grey vote that may do them in. NSW and SA look like being the states where the most damage will be inflicted on the Coalition.

That said, whoever has been running the Labor campaign deserves a hearty congratulations. Never in the history of this country (or any other, I imagine) has a campaign worked so well by hitting the targets that need hitting, dodging the issues that needed dodging and presenting a friendly, non-threatening face to the electorate.

On the other side of the aisle, a huge brickbat for the team running the Coalition election campaign. It's as if they've hired Gary Gray to give them advice. If the polls do stand up and they're defeated then they'll have nobody to blame but themselves.


Gibbo said...

I agree Jack, Labor have run a brilliant campaign & the Coalition have no-one to blame but themselves if they lose. They really need to pick up their game in a big way, especially at the state level. We should have had the state libs rubbing Morris Iemma & his incompetent idiots into the nose of the people at every moment. Morrie has been no-where to be seen & Rudd has managed not be associated with the state Labor party.

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