Friday, 24 July 2009

US economy to suffer further decline

Many commentators on the state of the US economy are telling us that the recession is basically over and that while there are still a few jobs to be lost it's all going to turn out alright shortly, the so-called green shoots are taking bloom so just wait and see.

These are the same economic commentators who didn't see the mess coming in the first place and they're going to be shown to be wrong again.

How does Uncle Jack know this?

Because he seems to have a better understanding of what makes up a strong economy than these supposed experts.

How does an economy grow?

People and companies make investments in new opportunities. Some of them succeed and some fail.

In order to make investments people and companies must have savings or earnings.

So how are companies' earnings going?

From Chart of the day:
Today, several companies (i.e. Ford, eBay and AT&T) reported better than expected earnings and as a result the stock market rallied on the news. While some companies have reported better than expected earnings for Q2 2009, others have struggled. Today's chart provides some perspective on the current earnings environment by focusing on 12-month, as reported S&P 500 earnings. Today's chart illustrates how earnings are expected (38% of S&P 500 companies have reported for Q2 2009) to have declined over 98% since peaking in Q3 2007, making this by far the largest decline on record (the data goes back to 1936). In fact, real earnings have dropped to a record low and if current estimates hold, Q3 2009 will see the first 12-month period during which S&P 500 earnings are negative.

Can someone please explain to me how the economy is going to pick up in 2010 when earnings have plummeted to their lowest level ever?

People are pointing to the improvement in housing approvals as proof the economy has turned.

All that is happening is that the bubble is being reinflated and the next time it pops it's going to be even worse than the first time around.

People are taking advantage of fantastically low interest rates and a heap of stimulus-injected cash washing around in the financial system.

Does anyone remember that the housing market is massively over supplied?

That's one of the reasons things collapsed in the first place.

When commercial real estate loans reset there's going to be another major market collapse. This is already locked in and can't be avoided.

Far from being a recovery, 2010 will be even worse than what has gone before.

(Nothing Follows)

1 comment:

Ellen K said...

Today they raise minimum wages. Someone, I don't know who, thinks that grown adults will keep this level of wages for life. Only the chronically impaired or the repeatedly incarcerated end up working for this past the age of say, 25. What will happen is that prices will rise in all venues and when the businesses can't continue to raise prices past what the market will bear, layoffs will ensue. This is not a wise thing to do when our national unemployment rate is 9.5% and in some locations it is approaching 16%. From personal knowledge, my just graduated from college son is a manager at a fastfood place. He's worked here all during college and with the job situation, he's hanging on for now. He said that his store will raise prices 13% today. He also said that vacancies on the shifts won't be filled. So I hope all those people who complain about not having good customer service are happy, because I have seen how hard my son works during rush shifts and frankly, get used to longer lines and less smiles because many businesses will be down to skeleton crews for the duration.