With Europe on the brink of financial collapse, the USA spending itself into perdition, China's manufacturing contracting and the rest of the emerging economies in various stages of expansion and contracting what can we look forward to in 2012?
Here are my predictions for 2012. Some are big, bold and brave and some are a bit obvious. We'll see how I go in a year's time.
Europe
The pressure on the banking system is now so great that it's hard to see how they can get through 2012 without some sort of financial ruction. The ECB has recently introduced a scheme in which it will lend money at around 2% to banks that are having trouble raising capital. At the same time as it has made 200 billion Euro available European banks have actually deposited 250 billion Euro with the ECB at a 0.5% rate. What does that tell you? That interbank lending is completely broken and they'd rather get near zero interest rates from the ECB than much higher rates by lending to other banks, which they don't trust. Part of the problem is that banks are not forced to mark assets to market so their balance sheets are completely false. If forced to mark to market a large number of banks would be insolvent.
Prediction 1: A number of large, well known European banks will go belly up in 2012. Their governments will engineer mergers with other banks in the same way that Lehman Bros was.
The infamous PIIGS are in even worse shape now than they were a year ago so the outlook for them is somewhat grim. Whether the technocrats that have been installed in Italy and Greece by the Euro elites can undo the rot remains to be seen. What is clear, though, is that there is a major attempt by European politicians to avoid the situation in which any country leaves, or can leave, the EU. Greece's problems are simply a matter of social and political corruption. People have come to expect an easy ride paid for by the government lavishing wages and entitlements on them that they have not earned. For its part the government has simply borrowed and borrowed - especially once it joined the EU and could borrow at the same rate as Germany - and paid off its constituents and cronies. There are no innocent parties in Greece in that regard. Spain is simply suffering from the excesses of democratic socialism taken to their logical conclusion. Government borrowing in order to pay for a plethora of social programs has really killed their economy. Youth unemployment is something like 50% and their housing market crash makes what happened in the US look like a walk in the park. Italy, on the other hand, can get its house back in order with some reasonably simple financial discipline. I was listening to John Mauldin a few weeks back and he highlighted that in France there are around 35,000 drivers (chauffeurs) for public officials in a population of 65 million. With a few million less people that number in Italy is 160,000 and that if they simply got rid of 75% of them then it would take care of 25% of their deficit. Which is pretty amazing when you think about it.
Prediction 2: No country will leave the EU in 2012.
USA
Given that it's an election year Mr Obama will pull out all stops to get re-elected including doing things that will boost his standing in the short term but hurt the United States subsequently. The Republican field of presidential contenders is probably up to the normal standard of years gone by but because we live in such difficult times people are looking for a strong Reagan-like figure and there simply isn't one there. It's odds on that Mitt Romney will take the nomination and enter what will be one of the most contentious, negative election races in US history.
The US Fed will respond to any quantitative easing by rolling out another round themselves in order to maintain an exchange rate of around 1.3 to the Euro. QE3 could happen in 2012 but it's not a prediction.
Prediction 3: In one of the closest races in US history Mr Obama will be elected to a second term.
The validity of the election result will be questionable given the Democrats' penchant for voter fraud and there may be grounds for appeal in certain electorates.
Prediction 4: Republicans won't have learned to correct the type of fraud that saw Al Franken steal his seat in Minnesota and we'll see repeats in 2012.
Prediction 5: The stock market will end 2012 up 20% so the Dow at around 14,500.
China
Chinese manufacturing is in a contraction at present due to demand for their products from Europe and the USA falling. Inflation, which has been a problem (and was exported to China from the US), is now coming under control so the government will need to look at ways of keeping their export machine going.
Prediction 6: The Chinese will re-peg the Yuan to the US dollar. This will increase their export competitiveness but will force the US to consider countermeasures in the form of quantitative easing and that will lead to an inflation problem again down the track.
Australia
Australia will continue to look like it's doing well while at the same time the foundational strength of our economy is stripped away by the most incompetent government in our history. Fair Work legislation will really bite in 2012, industrial disputes will hit a 10 year high, business investment will slow in the 2nd half due to the dual impacts of the insane Carbon Tax and Mining Tax, and the government debt will top $250B (a staggering number when you consider it was zero in 2007 and is due nearly 100% to ill-disciplined spending). The Reserve Bank will be forced to reduce interest rates in order to keep our dollar from appreciating too much against those other countries that are in the process of money printing. In an environment of rising inflation that could spell trouble for the Australian economy in 2013. All of which makes the next prediction pretty simple.
Prediction 7: The next election will be called early, probably in the last quarter of the year.
Other Comments
With many governments increasingly unable to fund themselves they will turn to the only source of funds left that they can access - pension funds. This will be a disaster, of course, but I expect that governments will force pension funds to invest a percentage of their assets - say 25% - in government bonds. If this happens then make sure you have many, many assets to fund your retirement, as you won't be able to rely on your pension maintaining its purchasing power.
Precious metals will continue their volatility in 2012. Gold is heading up and now is a good time to be buying. The current drop in prices is a result of raising cash to meet margin calls and, while there might be some slight downside still to go, I expect gold to top $2000 by year's end. Silver is a bit more problematic but I think that there's at least 10% in it and maybe more so I'll call $35 and see how I go.
Hope everyone has a terrific 2012. Remember to focus on your health and happiness first, as without that you're nothing!
Update: Prediction 8: Nothing will change in Syria. Assad will not be forced out now or anytime soon.
Update 2: Prediction 9: There's a fair chance that if any other regime is going to fall in the Middle East this year then it'll be Iran.
Sunday, 1 January 2012
Tuesday, 3 May 2011
On the death of a truly evil bastard
For anyone that has an even remotely well developed sense of right and wrong Osama Bin Laden was a truly evil bastard.
For those in the Middle East for whom attacking the 'strong horse' (in the current world that's the US) brings a sense of pride and purpose OBL was an inspiration and hero.
For those that are into cultural relativism and blame America for all of the world's ills OBL was something of an anti-hero; someone that they knew really wasn't a good guy but they cheered for anyway, partly because the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Well, he's dead now and good riddance to bad rubbish.
A few comments and predictions on the whole thing.
1. President Obama deserves praise for not only making a tough decision but also choosing not to use a missile a few months ago when it was determined that OBL was in the compound. Mr Obama knew that people would need to have proof that he had been killed so he took a risk and waited until the SEAL team was trained and ready to go. A gutsy call. In his speech to announce the death he also made a point that America was not at war with Islam and that OBL was not a Muslim leader, he was a murderer of Muslims. It's a good line. He also paid credit to the efforts of George W Bush, which was classy.
2. While there may be a few retaliatory incidents by Al Qaeda inspired terrorist groups OBL's death marks the beginning of the end of Islamist terror. I am reasonably confident about this prediction but make the exception of those atrocities carried out by Hamas/Hezbollah, which existed prior to Al Qaeda and have their own goals. In spite of so called Islamic leaders telling us that OBL did not represent the true Islam he was a hero to the majority of the Islamic world, especially the Arabs, and inspiration to those that shared his belief that Islam could once again be the world's dominant religion with Christianity and Judaism subservient to it. There is nobody who can replace his aura and authority. Ayman al-Zawahiri is clearly an excellent strategist and organiser but does not inspire his followers in anywhere near the same way as OBL did. His death is a body blow to organised terror.
3. Peace will come to the Arab world, excluding Israel/Palestine, sooner rather than later. Another big call. Bush's strategy of taking out Saddam Hussein and bringing democracy to the Arab world is, after a fashion, starting to come together. Have you noticed all of the crowds in the Arab streets cheering at the death of OBL, the man who supposedly distorted Islam and gave all of those 'moderate' Muslims a bad name? No, me neither. That's because there is great disappointment throughout the Arab world at the demise of their idol and, being Arabs, they will go back into their shells. I think that those countries that are currently experiencing uprisings will sort themselves out and, to be somewhat heretical here, even if the Muslim Brotherhood takes over in Egypt and elsewhere (they're the ones behind the trouble in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria, as well as being the progenitor of Hamas and Al Qaeda) they will be forced to modernise quite quickly in order to meet the needs of the people. Otherwise, they'll have an uprising of their own to deal with.
4. Bring on the Wikileaks release of information on the hunt for Bin Laden. I am 100% sure that it will vindicate the position of the conservative side of the argument - and prove the wisdom of Bush's incursion into Iraq - as it has been the case in nearly every leak so far, which is a point that is being quietly ignored by the anti-Bush, anti-West, anti-decency left.
5. We now know that Osama was killed in a compound only a short distance from the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, where he'd been living for quite some time apparently unbeknown to the citizens of Abbottabad. It does seem remarkably unlikely that he could have moved around in Pakistan let alone live in such circumstances without the help of sponsors and supporters in the Pakistan government, military and intelligence service. It also seems unlikely that Pakistan was given advance notice of the raid, as that would surely have allowed OBL to receive the information and escape. People are (rightly) asking questions about the support of OBL by the Pakistani authorities. In my view it would be much better if the Pakistan intelligence service, the ISI, had provided the information to the US or that he had been 'given up' by the military or politicians because it would be a signal that there has been a change of attitude in the country for the support of Islamic fundamentalism. I think it's 50-50 that Pakistan helped/did not help the operation.
6. What has happened to the moral compass of those who are complaining about the cheering of the death of Osama Bin Laden? Andrew Bolt has a few examples from the ABC that are truly shocking. After 9/11, George W Bush said that it didn't matter where OBL was and how long it took he was going to be hunted down and have justice served. Thus began a task to bring vengeance to those who had attacked the country and killed 2973 innocent people, as well as injuring thousands more. On December 7, 1941 the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbour killing 2402 people and waking a sleeping giant hell bent on revenge. Correcting such injustice will always carry a euphoric aftermath when the object of the vengeance has been dealt with. On VJ Day millions of Americans (and Australians and Kiwis etc) celebrated mightily. Justice was done. There's no difference between that and celebrating the death of OBL.
7. I know it will be glossed over/ignored by the anti-Israel lobby but it really does show who they're supporting when Hamas calls the killing of Bin Laden an 'atrocity'. Hamas has a slogan "We love death more than you love life". Apparently, when it's the death of one of their own they're not so much in love with it, are they? I can translate that slogan into one that everyone can understand, "We love killing more than you love life".
8. Israel and Palestine. The recent announcement that Hamas and Fatah were working together in order to have Palestine recognised as its own state, coupled with the decision by Egypt to open the border between Gaza and the Sinai, should send shivers down the spines of anyone who can think straight and understand what's going on. At present the United Nations recognises that Israel occupies Palestinian 'territories'. That those territories were fairly won as the spoils of a war started by the Arabs doesn't seem to enter into the calculation and provides further proof, if needed, that the UN is run by despots. If Palestine is recognised as a sovereign state in its own right then all of a sudden Israel is occupying another country and the equation changes massively, especially if the UN recognises Palestine being at the 1967 borders. Egypt has decided to open the border in order to gain leverage with the world's powers, as it will allow Hamas to import a massive amount of armaments and increase the trouble for Israel. At some point Israel is going to need to wipe out Hamas completely. They'll be forced to.
I'm still cheering my arse off at the death of a truly evil bastard. Hopefully, we can get a few more soon, including Gaddafi. It's a pity he managed to escape the other day. Would have made it a real good week.
(Nothing Follows)
For those in the Middle East for whom attacking the 'strong horse' (in the current world that's the US) brings a sense of pride and purpose OBL was an inspiration and hero.
For those that are into cultural relativism and blame America for all of the world's ills OBL was something of an anti-hero; someone that they knew really wasn't a good guy but they cheered for anyway, partly because the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Well, he's dead now and good riddance to bad rubbish.
A few comments and predictions on the whole thing.
1. President Obama deserves praise for not only making a tough decision but also choosing not to use a missile a few months ago when it was determined that OBL was in the compound. Mr Obama knew that people would need to have proof that he had been killed so he took a risk and waited until the SEAL team was trained and ready to go. A gutsy call. In his speech to announce the death he also made a point that America was not at war with Islam and that OBL was not a Muslim leader, he was a murderer of Muslims. It's a good line. He also paid credit to the efforts of George W Bush, which was classy.
2. While there may be a few retaliatory incidents by Al Qaeda inspired terrorist groups OBL's death marks the beginning of the end of Islamist terror. I am reasonably confident about this prediction but make the exception of those atrocities carried out by Hamas/Hezbollah, which existed prior to Al Qaeda and have their own goals. In spite of so called Islamic leaders telling us that OBL did not represent the true Islam he was a hero to the majority of the Islamic world, especially the Arabs, and inspiration to those that shared his belief that Islam could once again be the world's dominant religion with Christianity and Judaism subservient to it. There is nobody who can replace his aura and authority. Ayman al-Zawahiri is clearly an excellent strategist and organiser but does not inspire his followers in anywhere near the same way as OBL did. His death is a body blow to organised terror.
3. Peace will come to the Arab world, excluding Israel/Palestine, sooner rather than later. Another big call. Bush's strategy of taking out Saddam Hussein and bringing democracy to the Arab world is, after a fashion, starting to come together. Have you noticed all of the crowds in the Arab streets cheering at the death of OBL, the man who supposedly distorted Islam and gave all of those 'moderate' Muslims a bad name? No, me neither. That's because there is great disappointment throughout the Arab world at the demise of their idol and, being Arabs, they will go back into their shells. I think that those countries that are currently experiencing uprisings will sort themselves out and, to be somewhat heretical here, even if the Muslim Brotherhood takes over in Egypt and elsewhere (they're the ones behind the trouble in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria, as well as being the progenitor of Hamas and Al Qaeda) they will be forced to modernise quite quickly in order to meet the needs of the people. Otherwise, they'll have an uprising of their own to deal with.
4. Bring on the Wikileaks release of information on the hunt for Bin Laden. I am 100% sure that it will vindicate the position of the conservative side of the argument - and prove the wisdom of Bush's incursion into Iraq - as it has been the case in nearly every leak so far, which is a point that is being quietly ignored by the anti-Bush, anti-West, anti-decency left.
5. We now know that Osama was killed in a compound only a short distance from the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, where he'd been living for quite some time apparently unbeknown to the citizens of Abbottabad. It does seem remarkably unlikely that he could have moved around in Pakistan let alone live in such circumstances without the help of sponsors and supporters in the Pakistan government, military and intelligence service. It also seems unlikely that Pakistan was given advance notice of the raid, as that would surely have allowed OBL to receive the information and escape. People are (rightly) asking questions about the support of OBL by the Pakistani authorities. In my view it would be much better if the Pakistan intelligence service, the ISI, had provided the information to the US or that he had been 'given up' by the military or politicians because it would be a signal that there has been a change of attitude in the country for the support of Islamic fundamentalism. I think it's 50-50 that Pakistan helped/did not help the operation.
6. What has happened to the moral compass of those who are complaining about the cheering of the death of Osama Bin Laden? Andrew Bolt has a few examples from the ABC that are truly shocking. After 9/11, George W Bush said that it didn't matter where OBL was and how long it took he was going to be hunted down and have justice served. Thus began a task to bring vengeance to those who had attacked the country and killed 2973 innocent people, as well as injuring thousands more. On December 7, 1941 the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbour killing 2402 people and waking a sleeping giant hell bent on revenge. Correcting such injustice will always carry a euphoric aftermath when the object of the vengeance has been dealt with. On VJ Day millions of Americans (and Australians and Kiwis etc) celebrated mightily. Justice was done. There's no difference between that and celebrating the death of OBL.
7. I know it will be glossed over/ignored by the anti-Israel lobby but it really does show who they're supporting when Hamas calls the killing of Bin Laden an 'atrocity'. Hamas has a slogan "We love death more than you love life". Apparently, when it's the death of one of their own they're not so much in love with it, are they? I can translate that slogan into one that everyone can understand, "We love killing more than you love life".
8. Israel and Palestine. The recent announcement that Hamas and Fatah were working together in order to have Palestine recognised as its own state, coupled with the decision by Egypt to open the border between Gaza and the Sinai, should send shivers down the spines of anyone who can think straight and understand what's going on. At present the United Nations recognises that Israel occupies Palestinian 'territories'. That those territories were fairly won as the spoils of a war started by the Arabs doesn't seem to enter into the calculation and provides further proof, if needed, that the UN is run by despots. If Palestine is recognised as a sovereign state in its own right then all of a sudden Israel is occupying another country and the equation changes massively, especially if the UN recognises Palestine being at the 1967 borders. Egypt has decided to open the border in order to gain leverage with the world's powers, as it will allow Hamas to import a massive amount of armaments and increase the trouble for Israel. At some point Israel is going to need to wipe out Hamas completely. They'll be forced to.
I'm still cheering my arse off at the death of a truly evil bastard. Hopefully, we can get a few more soon, including Gaddafi. It's a pity he managed to escape the other day. Would have made it a real good week.
(Nothing Follows)
Wednesday, 27 April 2011
There I was minding my own business when Big Green tried to give me cancer
They say that those things that don't kill you make you stronger.
So what do we do with those things that may kill you?
The list of potentially fatal items has increased by one lately with a report from German scientists that energy saving light bulbs - CFLs - could cause cancer.
What does “Further independent studies would need to be undertaken to back up the presented German research” actually mean?
Whenever you read the term "independent research" you can be sure it's a euphemism for "scientists on the public payroll who agree with this policy".
Why is it that everything green turns to crap and costs a heap of money?
If I thought that greenies meant well then I'd have less of a problem with them but, unfortunately, they seem to be made up of people who get their kicks by telling others how they should live their lives.
It now seems that not only are they going to annoy me by making me have to buy these crappy, dim lights but that they could give me cancer, as well.
(Nothing Follows)
So what do we do with those things that may kill you?
The list of potentially fatal items has increased by one lately with a report from German scientists that energy saving light bulbs - CFLs - could cause cancer.
Fears have been reignited about the safety of energy saving light bulbs after a group of scientists warned that they contain cancer causing chemicals.
Their report advises that the bulbs should not be left on for extended periods, particularly near someone’s head, as they emit poisonous materials when switched on.
Peter Braun, who carried out the tests at the Berlin's Alab Laboratory, said: “For such carcinogenic substances it is important they are kept as far away as possible from the human environment.”
The bulbs are already widely used in the UK following EU direction to phase out traditional incandescent lighting by the end of this year.
But the German scientists claimed that several carcinogenic chemicals and toxins were released when the environmentally-friendly compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) were switched on, including phenol, naphthalene and styrene.
Andreas Kirchner, of the Federation of German Engineers, said: “Electrical smog develops around these lamps.
“I, therefore, use them only very economically. They should not be used in unventilated areas and definitely not in the proximity of the head.”
British experts insisted that more research was needed and urged consumers not to panic.
Dr Michelle Bloor, senior lecturer in Environmental Science at Portsmouth University, told the Daily Express: “Further independent studies would need to be undertaken to back up the presented German research.”
The Department for the Environment insists the bulbs are safe, despite the fact that they contain small amounts of mercury which would leak out if the glass was broken.
Advice on its website states: “Energy efficient light bulbs are not a danger to the public.
“Although they contain mercury, limited at 5mg per lamp, it cannot escape from a lamp that is intact.
“In any case, the very small amount contained in an energy efficient bulb is unlikely to cause harm even if the lamp should be broken.”
The latest report follows claims by Abraham Haim, a professor of biology at Haifa University in Israel, that the bulbs could result in higher breast cancer rates if used late at night.
He said that the bluer light that CFLs emitted closely mimicked daylight, disrupting the body's production of the hormone melatonin more than older-style filament bulbs, which cast a yellower light.
The Migraine Action Association has warned that they could trigger migraines and skin care specialists have claimed that their intense light could exacerbate a range of existing skin problems.The list of organisations warning about the dangers and other problems of these things seems quite large. Why is their voice not heard by policy makers?
What does “Further independent studies would need to be undertaken to back up the presented German research” actually mean?
Whenever you read the term "independent research" you can be sure it's a euphemism for "scientists on the public payroll who agree with this policy".
Why is it that everything green turns to crap and costs a heap of money?
If I thought that greenies meant well then I'd have less of a problem with them but, unfortunately, they seem to be made up of people who get their kicks by telling others how they should live their lives.
It now seems that not only are they going to annoy me by making me have to buy these crappy, dim lights but that they could give me cancer, as well.
(Nothing Follows)
Tuesday, 12 April 2011
10 Institutions That Ruin The World - Redux
I came up with this list of 10 Institutions That Ruin The World nearly three years ago.
It's interesting to read them again and realise just how accurate they are.
If I did the list again with the knowledge gained in the last couple of years then perhaps government would move up a couple of spots given its culpability for the so-called global financial crisis.
It's also worth noting how good a pick the Intelligent Design movement was given legislation like what the asshats in Tennessee have introduced into the State House:
And here's one that will annoy the Climate Taliban - just as Islam is a political doctrine wrapped up in a religious message, climate change is a political doctrine wrapped up in a scientific message.
The complete Jack Lacton list of 10 Institutions That Ruin The World:
#1 - The United Nations
#2 - The European Union
#3 - Expansionist Islam
#4 - The Environmental Movement
#5 - The Mainstream Media
#6 - Education Institutions and Education Unions
#7 - Government
#8 - The Social Justice Movement
#9 - The Peace Movement
#10 - The Intelligent Design Movement, Discovery Institute
It's interesting to read them again and realise just how accurate they are.
If I did the list again with the knowledge gained in the last couple of years then perhaps government would move up a couple of spots given its culpability for the so-called global financial crisis.
It's also worth noting how good a pick the Intelligent Design movement was given legislation like what the asshats in Tennessee have introduced into the State House:
This bill prohibits the state board of education and any public elementary or secondary school governing authority, director of schools, school system administrator, or principal or administrator from prohibiting any teacher in a public school system of this state from helping students understand, analyze, critique, and review in an objective manner the scientific strengths and scientific weaknesses of existing scientific theories covered in the course being taught, such as evolution and global warming.What a freaking disaster. Equating the baloney of theories other that evolution with the unscientific nonsense that passes as climate science is a mistake of epic proportions, especially given that Climate Astrology is more religion than science to its adherents.
And here's one that will annoy the Climate Taliban - just as Islam is a political doctrine wrapped up in a religious message, climate change is a political doctrine wrapped up in a scientific message.
The complete Jack Lacton list of 10 Institutions That Ruin The World:
#1 - The United Nations
#2 - The European Union
#3 - Expansionist Islam
#4 - The Environmental Movement
#5 - The Mainstream Media
#6 - Education Institutions and Education Unions
#7 - Government
#8 - The Social Justice Movement
#9 - The Peace Movement
#10 - The Intelligent Design Movement, Discovery Institute
Friday, 1 April 2011
Making some changes...
As regular readers can tell, I'm making some changes to the blog including the layout and new url.
http://ker-plunk.blogspot.com will still work but the main address has changed to www.jacklacton.com
(Nothing Follows)
http://ker-plunk.blogspot.com will still work but the main address has changed to www.jacklacton.com
(Nothing Follows)
Thursday, 31 March 2011
Earth Hour flops again
In typical fashion Big Environment is yet again ignoring the utter failure of Earth Hour by heralding the puny participation rate as a huge success.
I was privileged enough to receive an email from Earth Hour Australia with all of the details (I think one of my asshat lefty mates signed me up to wwf.org.au as a bit of a lark coz I never did).
Here's the first paragraph, along with some analysis:
There are, according to the ABS, 9468 schools in Australia so Earth Hour organisers did a sterling job to sign up a whopping 300. That's 3% or, in IPCC terms, a consensus.
There are around 700 councils so 152 represents a mind blowing 22%. Given that councils are mostly run be leftist nitwits and are a haven for Green activists and the Climate Taliban I'm going to suggest that getting only 22% is actually a crap effort.
How many businesses are there in Australia? A heap. Over 2 million. To get a piddling 2000 of them to come on board, a microscopic 0.1%, doesn't seem too spectacular to me. But hang on, you say, aren't most of those small businesses and sole contractors? By jingo, you're right, 80% of them are in that category so it's really 2000 (assuming none are small businesses) out of 400,000 or 0.5%. Thanks for pointing that out!
I've got no idea how many government departments there are in Australia. Thousands, probably. But that's a bit irrelevant because organisers could pick up 100 simply by having the federal government on board, which in these days of Carbon Tax wars is a dead certainty so no points for the Earth Hour people from that, either.
As I said, I complete joke. Tim Blair linked to a report that over 10 million Australians had participated. He correctly described it as a lie.
The command and control policies you support led to the greatest environmental destruction the world has ever seen. And, embarrassingly for your side, it took free market capitalism to clean it up. Not that you'd ever even admit to that even if you could understand how it did (and continues to do so to this very day).
(Nothing Follows)
I was privileged enough to receive an email from Earth Hour Australia with all of the details (I think one of my asshat lefty mates signed me up to wwf.org.au as a bit of a lark coz I never did).
Here's the first paragraph, along with some analysis:
Wow, what a night!It sure was! I invited a few mates around, had all of the lights on, turned on the BBQ (well, we did have an assortment of bits from farmyard animals to cook), all of the hot plates, the oven (admittedly, it was also used for cooking roast veggies) and the microwave (also admittedly, one of my mates suggested we heat up cups of water for no good reason other than we could; the man's a veritable genius).
We hope that you enjoyed being part of the biggest Earth Hour ever.It was that good I'm still recovering.
Earth Hour continues to be embraced by the global community, transcending race, culture and age.Breathing and eating are also embraced by the global community and, funnily enough, also transcend race, culture and age.
A record 134 countries and territories on all 7 continents registered, with a whole host of countries officially joining for the first time (including Lebanon, Jamaica, Iran, Uganda, Swaziland, Tajikistan, Chad, Azerbaijan, Gibraltar, Palestine, Suriname, Uzbekistan, Trinidad & Tobago and Lesotho).OK, I'll play your silly game. Which country in Antarctica registered for Earth Hour? And what are the 62 countries that didn't participate? That's actually quite a few when you think about how easy it is to be involved in this pointless piece of environmental onanism.
Across Australia, over 300 schools, 152 councils, almost 2000 businesses, and 220 government departments across Australia officially signed up to take part, as well as thousands of individual Australians.Wow! That's amazing! What terrific penetration into society! Let's run a few numbers, shall we?
There are, according to the ABS, 9468 schools in Australia so Earth Hour organisers did a sterling job to sign up a whopping 300. That's 3% or, in IPCC terms, a consensus.
There are around 700 councils so 152 represents a mind blowing 22%. Given that councils are mostly run be leftist nitwits and are a haven for Green activists and the Climate Taliban I'm going to suggest that getting only 22% is actually a crap effort.
How many businesses are there in Australia? A heap. Over 2 million. To get a piddling 2000 of them to come on board, a microscopic 0.1%, doesn't seem too spectacular to me. But hang on, you say, aren't most of those small businesses and sole contractors? By jingo, you're right, 80% of them are in that category so it's really 2000 (assuming none are small businesses) out of 400,000 or 0.5%. Thanks for pointing that out!
I've got no idea how many government departments there are in Australia. Thousands, probably. But that's a bit irrelevant because organisers could pick up 100 simply by having the federal government on board, which in these days of Carbon Tax wars is a dead certainty so no points for the Earth Hour people from that, either.
As I said, I complete joke. Tim Blair linked to a report that over 10 million Australians had participated. He correctly described it as a lie.
What a fantastic display of care and commitment to this planet we call home. Thank you for being part of it.Hey, pal, let me tell you something. I care more for the environment than your entire cohort of envirofascists combined.
The command and control policies you support led to the greatest environmental destruction the world has ever seen. And, embarrassingly for your side, it took free market capitalism to clean it up. Not that you'd ever even admit to that even if you could understand how it did (and continues to do so to this very day).
But thanks for the comedy. Keep it coming.
(Nothing Follows)
Things I don't understand
OK, how does this happen?
Shane Warne & Liz Hurley??!!
Or this?
Sean Penn & Scarlet Johannson??!!
But THIS is something I do understand.
George Clooney & Elisabetta Canalis...
Shane Warne & Liz Hurley??!!
Or this?
Sean Penn & Scarlet Johannson??!!
But THIS is something I do understand.
George Clooney & Elisabetta Canalis...
What happened to his hand?
By the way, this is a photo of a young George Clooney...
...proving that for those of you that have kids who look like they were beaten with an ugly stick...there's hope for them yet.
(Nothing Follows)
(Nothing Follows)
Wednesday, 30 March 2011
Japan's nuclear non-story
On 11 March a once in a lifetime magnitude 9.1 earthquake sent a wall of water hurtling towards Japan that would destroys hundreds of thousands of homes and take tens of thousands of lives.
By any definition, it's a calamity.
What has also been a calamity has been the reporting. From the time it was announced that the nuclear power plant at Fukushima had been damaged the focus of the media turned from the massive human tragedy to overblown hysteria about the possibility of a nuclear meltdown and radiation throughout the world.
Even the normally reliable The Australian newspaper has fallen for the anti-nuclear agitprop:
People are in dire need and yet this is the sort of drivel we get.
To be clear: there is zero, zip, zilch, nada, nil, none, no problem for anyone living anywhere in the world outside of the perimeter of the compound itself. None.
I happened to have dinner with a scientist who is expert on these matters and helps oversee nuclear safety in Australia a week or so after the tsunami in Japan and he was even more apoplectic than I was (which I didn't think was possible) about the media's reporting.
Even my old mum asked me about what was going to happen when I was driving her home one day. She was genuinely surprised that I said it was all hooey and no problem for anyone other than the plant operators and, politically, the government.
Such is the media hype and scaremongering that even the most senior Japanese politicians have to be seen to be on top of the nuclear plant issue and 'doing something' to protect the citizens. To 'do nothing', even though nothing needs to be done, is to commit political harakiri.
The tragedy is twofold.
Firstly, the Japanese government's attention is taken away, even for a short time, from the real task at hand and that is helping the people affected by the tsunami.
Secondly, those people who need help most from all over the world are not getting it due to the blanket media coverage of the nuclear non-event.
I agree with those who reckon that Fukushima will put back the nuclear debate in Australia by 10 years, such is the public's lack of understanding of the reality of nuclear power.
However, what a fantastic example of the true safety of nuclear power we have seen. Faced with an earthquake of much higher magnitude than engineers ever anticipated and a tsunami nearly twice as high (10m vs 5.5m or so) as what the plant was designed for the thing still shut down in an orderly manner, minimising the possibility of a large problem. Certainly, there have been problems that have needed dealing with. Given the scale of the problem that hit them it's hardly surprising.
But does the media tell us how remarkable a story this is of nuclear safety? No. Instead we get hysteria that radiation levels are 100,000 times normal while at the same time ignoring the fact that it's still many orders of magnitude below the level needed to cause a problem.
It's yet another example of how deeply the left's messages and propaganda have seeped into society that normally rational people would be so concerned by what is only a serious local issue.
(Nothing Follows)
By any definition, it's a calamity.
What has also been a calamity has been the reporting. From the time it was announced that the nuclear power plant at Fukushima had been damaged the focus of the media turned from the massive human tragedy to overblown hysteria about the possibility of a nuclear meltdown and radiation throughout the world.
Even the normally reliable The Australian newspaper has fallen for the anti-nuclear agitprop:
People are in dire need and yet this is the sort of drivel we get.
To be clear: there is zero, zip, zilch, nada, nil, none, no problem for anyone living anywhere in the world outside of the perimeter of the compound itself. None.
I happened to have dinner with a scientist who is expert on these matters and helps oversee nuclear safety in Australia a week or so after the tsunami in Japan and he was even more apoplectic than I was (which I didn't think was possible) about the media's reporting.
Even my old mum asked me about what was going to happen when I was driving her home one day. She was genuinely surprised that I said it was all hooey and no problem for anyone other than the plant operators and, politically, the government.
Such is the media hype and scaremongering that even the most senior Japanese politicians have to be seen to be on top of the nuclear plant issue and 'doing something' to protect the citizens. To 'do nothing', even though nothing needs to be done, is to commit political harakiri.
The tragedy is twofold.
Firstly, the Japanese government's attention is taken away, even for a short time, from the real task at hand and that is helping the people affected by the tsunami.
Secondly, those people who need help most from all over the world are not getting it due to the blanket media coverage of the nuclear non-event.
I agree with those who reckon that Fukushima will put back the nuclear debate in Australia by 10 years, such is the public's lack of understanding of the reality of nuclear power.
However, what a fantastic example of the true safety of nuclear power we have seen. Faced with an earthquake of much higher magnitude than engineers ever anticipated and a tsunami nearly twice as high (10m vs 5.5m or so) as what the plant was designed for the thing still shut down in an orderly manner, minimising the possibility of a large problem. Certainly, there have been problems that have needed dealing with. Given the scale of the problem that hit them it's hardly surprising.
But does the media tell us how remarkable a story this is of nuclear safety? No. Instead we get hysteria that radiation levels are 100,000 times normal while at the same time ignoring the fact that it's still many orders of magnitude below the level needed to cause a problem.
It's yet another example of how deeply the left's messages and propaganda have seeped into society that normally rational people would be so concerned by what is only a serious local issue.
(Nothing Follows)
Tuesday, 29 March 2011
Socialism - before and after
In the pictures tell a thousand stories category come some examples of the differences between countries before and after socialism was implemented.
After World War II Germany ended up being split in two with West Germany a free and democratic state and East Germany falling behind the Iron Curtain and into the control of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics - the commies.
This allowed an interesting experiment to play out. Which country would prosper the most given they both had the same starting point in terms of ability of the population?
In 1991 the Berlin Wall fell and, for the first time, the West got a close up look at what had happened in the previous 45 years.
There are many examples of the differences between the two states but this is the most glaring to me.
Here's the height of East German automotive engineering, the Trabant:
'Powered' by a thundering 1L motor that developed a mighty 19kW (26hp) it could race from 0-100km/h in 21 seconds before topping out at 112km/h. According to the Wikipedia entry:
By contrast, here's a highlight from the West German 1991 motor industry, the Mercedes 560SEC:
With a 32 valve 5.6L donk pumping out 235kW this beautiful beast could thunder to 100km/h in 5.8 seconds on the way to a top speed of 280km/h.
How could this happen? How could people start from the same point but end up so far apart?
The answer is clear. Socialist - and other command and control - economies lack the feedback loop required to create the continuous improvement that comes from good, old fashioned competition.
There are so many examples where this has happened that it's surprising anyone can still believe government intervention in the economy can be a good thing. Hello, Mr Krugman? Time for your reality check.
You'll probably have seen this shocking photo of North and South Korea taken from an orbiting satellite that shows the difference between the two states in terms of electricity use, which is a proxy for economic development.
What's remarkable is that it's only 50-odd years since the end of the Korean War. In the South you see prosperity at a level never before experienced in that country while in the North you see poverty and depravity that has probably never before been experienced even under the cruelest of Chinese despots from days of yore.
These are extreme examples of the negative impact that governments can have on the lives of their citizens, which has given rise to the Tea Party in the United States and is driving a lot of the anti-government protests in Australia.
The point is that people understand that relationship. They can see the pernicious effects of the welfare state. They understand that redistribution of income ends up hurting everyone in the end as jobs evaporate and government debt starts to cause services to be reduced and interest rates to rise.
It's not just socialist ideology that is the problem. Take, for example, the development of Pakistan and India. Created at a similar time to many other countries after World War II and starting with the same abilities of the people, Pakistan has turned into an economic basket case while India - once it started to unshackle itself from the anchor of socialism, which is an important point to note - has accelerated at a massive pace lifting tens of millions of people out of poverty. In Pakistan, like in many nations in Africa, corruption by government officials has a similar effect as having a socialist economy. When you combine the two, such as in Zimbabwe, then you simply hasten the collapse.
After World War II Germany ended up being split in two with West Germany a free and democratic state and East Germany falling behind the Iron Curtain and into the control of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics - the commies.
This allowed an interesting experiment to play out. Which country would prosper the most given they both had the same starting point in terms of ability of the population?
In 1991 the Berlin Wall fell and, for the first time, the West got a close up look at what had happened in the previous 45 years.
There are many examples of the differences between the two states but this is the most glaring to me.
Here's the height of East German automotive engineering, the Trabant:
'Powered' by a thundering 1L motor that developed a mighty 19kW (26hp) it could race from 0-100km/h in 21 seconds before topping out at 112km/h. According to the Wikipedia entry:
There were two main problems with the engine: the smoky exhaust and the pollution it produced—nine times the amount of hydrocarbons and five times the carbon monoxide emissions of the average European car of 2007. The fuel consumption was 7 L/100 km (40 mpg-imp; 34 mpg-US). Since the engine does not have an oil injection system, two-stroke oil has to be added to the 24-litre (6.3 U.S. gal; 5.3 imp gal) fuel tank every time the car was filled up, at a 50:1 or 33:1 ratio of fuel to oil. Gas stations of the time in countries where two-stroke engines were common served premixed gas-oil mixture from the pump. Today, owners normally carry a container of two-stroke oil in the car for this purpose. The earlier models have no fuel gauge; a dipstick is inserted into the tank to determine how much fuel remains.How completely awesome.
By contrast, here's a highlight from the West German 1991 motor industry, the Mercedes 560SEC:
With a 32 valve 5.6L donk pumping out 235kW this beautiful beast could thunder to 100km/h in 5.8 seconds on the way to a top speed of 280km/h.
How could this happen? How could people start from the same point but end up so far apart?
The answer is clear. Socialist - and other command and control - economies lack the feedback loop required to create the continuous improvement that comes from good, old fashioned competition.
There are so many examples where this has happened that it's surprising anyone can still believe government intervention in the economy can be a good thing. Hello, Mr Krugman? Time for your reality check.
You'll probably have seen this shocking photo of North and South Korea taken from an orbiting satellite that shows the difference between the two states in terms of electricity use, which is a proxy for economic development.
What's remarkable is that it's only 50-odd years since the end of the Korean War. In the South you see prosperity at a level never before experienced in that country while in the North you see poverty and depravity that has probably never before been experienced even under the cruelest of Chinese despots from days of yore.
These are extreme examples of the negative impact that governments can have on the lives of their citizens, which has given rise to the Tea Party in the United States and is driving a lot of the anti-government protests in Australia.
The point is that people understand that relationship. They can see the pernicious effects of the welfare state. They understand that redistribution of income ends up hurting everyone in the end as jobs evaporate and government debt starts to cause services to be reduced and interest rates to rise.
It's not just socialist ideology that is the problem. Take, for example, the development of Pakistan and India. Created at a similar time to many other countries after World War II and starting with the same abilities of the people, Pakistan has turned into an economic basket case while India - once it started to unshackle itself from the anchor of socialism, which is an important point to note - has accelerated at a massive pace lifting tens of millions of people out of poverty. In Pakistan, like in many nations in Africa, corruption by government officials has a similar effect as having a socialist economy. When you combine the two, such as in Zimbabwe, then you simply hasten the collapse.
And let's not mention the economic miracle in Israel, a country literally carved out of dirt, that makes its Arab neighbours look like something from the Stone Age.
It really does give one pause for thought.
(Nothing Follows)
It really does give one pause for thought.
(Nothing Follows)
Thursday, 24 March 2011
Climategate really is the greatest scientific scandal of all time
Shortly after the Climategate scandal broke and I'd had a chance to go through the documents released I described it as the greatest scientific scandal of all time.
Worse than Piltdown Man (which was a corker) or Hwang to name just a couple of famous ones.
The Climate Taliban have been in denial about what Climategate means and the defensive lines seems to be that, yes, mistakes were made but it doesn't undermine the overall scientific support for the climate change thesis.
The scientist at the centre of Climategate is Phil Jones. He had such credibility within the climate community that he was a contributing author to Chapter 12, Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes, of the Third Assessment Report (2001) and a Coordinating Lead Author of Chapter 3, Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change, of the Fourth Assessment Report (2007).
In this latter role Jones wielded a lot of power and had the ability to control the direction of the report.
So his credibility matters. A lot.
Now it has come out that not only did his climate group at the University of East Anglia 'hide the decline' in the post 1960 'spaghetti graph' of temperature that is pervasive throughout climate literature but they also manipulated the starting point of the series in order to eradicate an inconvenient result - in pink below - as demonstrated by the one man climate science truth finder, Steve McIntyre:
How amazing is that?
What sort of scientist goes to work knowing that what they're putting forward is a complete fraud?
If Phil Jones can't be honest with what his own team is putting forward then how can we trust anything he's allowed into the Fourth Assessment Report?
More importantly, how could it survive peer review? Aren't we repeatedly told that peer review in climate science is beyond reproach? If that's really the case then why do so many critical errors and fabrications continue to be discovered? It's as if the peer review process is either a sham or is carried out be people who accept the science and don't look too hard.
I have a theory that climate science has attracted a large number of mediocre scientists over the years simply because there's a lot of funding to be had and, critically, there's no demand to prove what they're doing is true. How else can climate models have a zero percent prediction rate yet the people who create them are held in high regard within the climate community? There is so little scientific skill that scientists simply trust each other's work.
The worst part is that the mainstream media will completely ignore yet another piece of proof that climate science is a corrupt, inaccurate discipline that has been taken over by scientific hacks seeking money and prestige, and environmental activists wanting to use it for political advantage.
(Nothing Follows)
Worse than Piltdown Man (which was a corker) or Hwang to name just a couple of famous ones.
The Climate Taliban have been in denial about what Climategate means and the defensive lines seems to be that, yes, mistakes were made but it doesn't undermine the overall scientific support for the climate change thesis.
The scientist at the centre of Climategate is Phil Jones. He had such credibility within the climate community that he was a contributing author to Chapter 12, Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes, of the Third Assessment Report (2001) and a Coordinating Lead Author of Chapter 3, Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change, of the Fourth Assessment Report (2007).
In this latter role Jones wielded a lot of power and had the ability to control the direction of the report.
So his credibility matters. A lot.
Now it has come out that not only did his climate group at the University of East Anglia 'hide the decline' in the post 1960 'spaghetti graph' of temperature that is pervasive throughout climate literature but they also manipulated the starting point of the series in order to eradicate an inconvenient result - in pink below - as demonstrated by the one man climate science truth finder, Steve McIntyre:
How amazing is that?
What sort of scientist goes to work knowing that what they're putting forward is a complete fraud?
If Phil Jones can't be honest with what his own team is putting forward then how can we trust anything he's allowed into the Fourth Assessment Report?
More importantly, how could it survive peer review? Aren't we repeatedly told that peer review in climate science is beyond reproach? If that's really the case then why do so many critical errors and fabrications continue to be discovered? It's as if the peer review process is either a sham or is carried out be people who accept the science and don't look too hard.
I have a theory that climate science has attracted a large number of mediocre scientists over the years simply because there's a lot of funding to be had and, critically, there's no demand to prove what they're doing is true. How else can climate models have a zero percent prediction rate yet the people who create them are held in high regard within the climate community? There is so little scientific skill that scientists simply trust each other's work.
The worst part is that the mainstream media will completely ignore yet another piece of proof that climate science is a corrupt, inaccurate discipline that has been taken over by scientific hacks seeking money and prestige, and environmental activists wanting to use it for political advantage.
(Nothing Follows)
Wednesday, 23 March 2011
Labor's Carbon Tax is really a redistribution of income scam
Julia Gillard's freakish political contortion, the likes of which have probably never before been seen in Australian politics, of breaking an election promise to not introduce a carbon tax, bowing to the radical Greens and then introducing a carbon tax can have no other outcome than increase the size of the Australian deficit and reduce employment.
Let's assume that the amount raised from power companies by the carbon tax each year is $10 billion.
There are a number of groups that will be especially hurt by an increase in power prices - those at the low end of the income spectrum, trade exposed industries whose position against overseas competition will be damaged and small business, which seems to be a forgotten factor in the conversation so far.
It's clear that the government can't compensate all groups affected so let's assume that they distribute the money to low income earners. Note that they are on record as saying that the money will not simply go into Treasury coffers so let's also assume that it joins the short list of promises kept by this government since being elected in 2007.
The tax is introduced in 2011 and low income workers rejoice as they see the effects in their bank balances. They then feel the pain when they get their utilities bills but, being conscientious with their money and in no way tempted to buy more grog or smokes or stick it in the pokies or back something to beat Black Caviar*, they pay what they owe. So there's no impact on them.
Power companies now have an incentive to reduce the amount of CO2 they produce, which is the whole point of the exercise and so they invest in clean technologies that have the effect of reducing CO2 emissions to zero thus fulfilling the government's ambition.
Can you see the problem?
At this point the government will raise no money at all from taxing so-called 'carbon pollution', the cost of power will not be reduced due the investment made by power companies that needs to be paid for meaning that low income households will still need financial support to meet their utilities bills.
So the government now has a $10 billion hole in its budget. Is it going to fill the void by raising taxes or by increasing the deficit? Either way, the impact on employment is negative.
And while all that has been going on our trade exposed industries have been shedding jobs at a terrific rate to countries that are not bound by the onanistic impulses of the climate brigade.
So let's give all of the money to trade exposed industries instead of low income workers.
The government gets stuck in the same cycle. When the power companies clean up their act the government will need to maintain support for trade exposed industries otherwise there'll be a massive loss of jobs in a short time frame to overseas competitors. Not a palatable outcome for any politician.
And all the while small business is getting hammered and is shedding jobs.
So here's Labor's dirty, little secret. I'm going to shout it at you so that you can take it in.
Labor's carbon tax CAN ONLY WORK IF POWER COMPANIES NEVER REDUCE THEIR CO2 OUTPUT.
The government knows this, of course, which is why it's just a great, big, redistributionist scam but it also knows that its allies in the mainstream media won't point it out to the voting public any time soon.
The result will be that the tax will be in place before an emissions trading scheme is introduced, which the government expects will continue to provide the revenue it needs.
And bad luck to the people who lose their jobs because of it.
* I don't live in this world, either, but the good folk who create government budgets surely must.
(Nothing Follows)
Let's assume that the amount raised from power companies by the carbon tax each year is $10 billion.
There are a number of groups that will be especially hurt by an increase in power prices - those at the low end of the income spectrum, trade exposed industries whose position against overseas competition will be damaged and small business, which seems to be a forgotten factor in the conversation so far.
It's clear that the government can't compensate all groups affected so let's assume that they distribute the money to low income earners. Note that they are on record as saying that the money will not simply go into Treasury coffers so let's also assume that it joins the short list of promises kept by this government since being elected in 2007.
The tax is introduced in 2011 and low income workers rejoice as they see the effects in their bank balances. They then feel the pain when they get their utilities bills but, being conscientious with their money and in no way tempted to buy more grog or smokes or stick it in the pokies or back something to beat Black Caviar*, they pay what they owe. So there's no impact on them.
Power companies now have an incentive to reduce the amount of CO2 they produce, which is the whole point of the exercise and so they invest in clean technologies that have the effect of reducing CO2 emissions to zero thus fulfilling the government's ambition.
Can you see the problem?
At this point the government will raise no money at all from taxing so-called 'carbon pollution', the cost of power will not be reduced due the investment made by power companies that needs to be paid for meaning that low income households will still need financial support to meet their utilities bills.
So the government now has a $10 billion hole in its budget. Is it going to fill the void by raising taxes or by increasing the deficit? Either way, the impact on employment is negative.
And while all that has been going on our trade exposed industries have been shedding jobs at a terrific rate to countries that are not bound by the onanistic impulses of the climate brigade.
So let's give all of the money to trade exposed industries instead of low income workers.
The government gets stuck in the same cycle. When the power companies clean up their act the government will need to maintain support for trade exposed industries otherwise there'll be a massive loss of jobs in a short time frame to overseas competitors. Not a palatable outcome for any politician.
And all the while small business is getting hammered and is shedding jobs.
So here's Labor's dirty, little secret. I'm going to shout it at you so that you can take it in.
Labor's carbon tax CAN ONLY WORK IF POWER COMPANIES NEVER REDUCE THEIR CO2 OUTPUT.
The government knows this, of course, which is why it's just a great, big, redistributionist scam but it also knows that its allies in the mainstream media won't point it out to the voting public any time soon.
The result will be that the tax will be in place before an emissions trading scheme is introduced, which the government expects will continue to provide the revenue it needs.
And bad luck to the people who lose their jobs because of it.
* I don't live in this world, either, but the good folk who create government budgets surely must.
(Nothing Follows)
Tuesday, 22 March 2011
Why does the left wet its pants at the slightest hint of trouble?
Remember the Bird Flu epidemic that was going to wipe out vast numbers of people, especially in Asia?
Remember the dire warnings about Swine Flu from the World Health Organisation and Joe Biden's classic "I wouldn't go anywhere in confined spaces..." line?
How did that whole heterosexual AIDS thing work out?
What about silicone breast implants? The most negative effect was to the aesthetic appeal of the bodies of those women who chose to get them.
From the population bomb leading to mass starvation to peak oil to the hysteria du jour, global warming, we have had no shortage of end of days scenarios to contend with.
Now we can add to the list the massive overreaction to what has essentially been a serious local problem at the site of the Fukushima nuclear plant that the Japanese have had pretty much under control from the start. That people in the US and Asia were running out and buying iodide tablets shows the massive influence of the mainstream media to panic the masses (or, at least, those masses prone to panic). I wonder what the result of a survey of the political affiliation of those buying the tablets would be.
US radio talk show host Dennis Prager constantly reminds people that the hysterics, who are mainly on the left, are wrong 99% of the time.
How can this be? What drives people to so badly overreact at the slightest whiff of difficulty? Why is the left so much more likely to get things so badly wrong than the right?
I presume it relates to the left's tendency to seek to exert more and more influence over people's lives and nothing provides more control than a potential extinction event.
While that might explain the political advantage the left seeks to gain from upheaval it doesn't tell us why people get so genuinely frightened when there's no rational reason to be so. It doesn't explain why they get so angry and abusive when they're called out on their poor judgements.
I don't know what the answer is, either. What I do know is that there's a high correlation between those who believe in global warming and those who thought that Fukushima was an existential threat to life everywhere.
Somehow, that doesn't surprise me.
(Nothing Follows)
Remember the dire warnings about Swine Flu from the World Health Organisation and Joe Biden's classic "I wouldn't go anywhere in confined spaces..." line?
How did that whole heterosexual AIDS thing work out?
What about silicone breast implants? The most negative effect was to the aesthetic appeal of the bodies of those women who chose to get them.
From the population bomb leading to mass starvation to peak oil to the hysteria du jour, global warming, we have had no shortage of end of days scenarios to contend with.
Now we can add to the list the massive overreaction to what has essentially been a serious local problem at the site of the Fukushima nuclear plant that the Japanese have had pretty much under control from the start. That people in the US and Asia were running out and buying iodide tablets shows the massive influence of the mainstream media to panic the masses (or, at least, those masses prone to panic). I wonder what the result of a survey of the political affiliation of those buying the tablets would be.
US radio talk show host Dennis Prager constantly reminds people that the hysterics, who are mainly on the left, are wrong 99% of the time.
How can this be? What drives people to so badly overreact at the slightest whiff of difficulty? Why is the left so much more likely to get things so badly wrong than the right?
I presume it relates to the left's tendency to seek to exert more and more influence over people's lives and nothing provides more control than a potential extinction event.
While that might explain the political advantage the left seeks to gain from upheaval it doesn't tell us why people get so genuinely frightened when there's no rational reason to be so. It doesn't explain why they get so angry and abusive when they're called out on their poor judgements.
I don't know what the answer is, either. What I do know is that there's a high correlation between those who believe in global warming and those who thought that Fukushima was an existential threat to life everywhere.
Somehow, that doesn't surprise me.
(Nothing Follows)
Monday, 21 March 2011
Fear of religion actually means fear of Islam
Australia's Human Rights Commission, an unneeded organisation if ever there was one, has released a report saying that there's a general fear of religion in the community.
By way of example they use only Islam to make their point, as outlined below in this piece from The Australian:
1. Anyone with half a brain who understands that more than 90% of the world's terrorist attacks (excluding in Iraq and Afghanistan) are carried out in the name of one religion - Islam - in order to promote Sharia and create a new Ummah and is wary of all of those who say that it's a small minority that carry out the attacks and they don't represent the religion.
2. Secular fanatics who worship at the feet of Richard Dawkins' and Christopher Hitchens' post modern atheism that disguise their contempt for Christianity and Judeo-Christian values under the umbrella of rejecting religion completely.
3. The left and its rank anti-Semitism disguised as opposition to Israel.
When the Australian Human Rights Commission says there's a fear of religion then do they include Buddhists? Sikhs? Hindus?
Why would we be afraid of the Mormons? Are they going to be sickeningly nice to us until we're dead?
What about the Rastafarians? Afraid of reggae music and a little weed?
And why didn't they include being a Green as a religion? They're hardly any different to animists, if you ask me.
The reason that people in Australia are afraid, though 'concerned' is probably a better description, of Islam is two-fold:
1. Most terror attacks in the world are carried out in its name (as outlined above) and every, single person indicted for planning terrorist attacks in Australia has been Muslim; and
2. People understand that Sharia is a barbaric, restrictive, misogynistic, homophobic relic that controls people's lives and has no place in a modern, progressive society.
Why am I not surprised that the folk at the Australian Human Rights Commission think that genuine and legitimate concern about the practices of one group of people, Muslims, is the same as a blanket fear of religion?
(Nothing Follows)
By way of example they use only Islam to make their point, as outlined below in this piece from The Australian:
THERE'S a pressing need to use education to reduce ignorance and fear about religions in Australia, a new report saysThere are currently only three groups who have issues with religion:
It said there is a current anti-Muslim discourse that suggests entrenched hostility which is often related to overseas events.
The report, entitled Freedom of Religion in the 21st Century, was prepared for the Australian Human Rights Commission.
The researchers said some Christians fear the introduction of sharia law in Australia and believe that governments appease Muslim communities by giving Islam preferential treatment.
Some people told the researchers that evangelical Christians demonise Muslims partly because of "high levels of ignorance by churches about Islam".
It also said some Muslim children see themselves as outsiders because they see their religion vilified at every turn.
"They see how they are viewed as Muslims, which in turn affects how they view themselves," the report said.
The report's conclusion said the commission needs to "foster a discussion about the place of religious rights along side other rights".
It said the commission must allow "for the view to be heard that religious rights are absolute, and then to allow that view to be tempered by other views".
It urges religious leaders to play a key role in overcoming ignorance about religion in the community.
1. Anyone with half a brain who understands that more than 90% of the world's terrorist attacks (excluding in Iraq and Afghanistan) are carried out in the name of one religion - Islam - in order to promote Sharia and create a new Ummah and is wary of all of those who say that it's a small minority that carry out the attacks and they don't represent the religion.
2. Secular fanatics who worship at the feet of Richard Dawkins' and Christopher Hitchens' post modern atheism that disguise their contempt for Christianity and Judeo-Christian values under the umbrella of rejecting religion completely.
3. The left and its rank anti-Semitism disguised as opposition to Israel.
When the Australian Human Rights Commission says there's a fear of religion then do they include Buddhists? Sikhs? Hindus?
Why would we be afraid of the Mormons? Are they going to be sickeningly nice to us until we're dead?
What about the Rastafarians? Afraid of reggae music and a little weed?
And why didn't they include being a Green as a religion? They're hardly any different to animists, if you ask me.
The reason that people in Australia are afraid, though 'concerned' is probably a better description, of Islam is two-fold:
1. Most terror attacks in the world are carried out in its name (as outlined above) and every, single person indicted for planning terrorist attacks in Australia has been Muslim; and
2. People understand that Sharia is a barbaric, restrictive, misogynistic, homophobic relic that controls people's lives and has no place in a modern, progressive society.
Why am I not surprised that the folk at the Australian Human Rights Commission think that genuine and legitimate concern about the practices of one group of people, Muslims, is the same as a blanket fear of religion?
(Nothing Follows)
Wednesday, 22 December 2010
Mulling...
There's a lot going on.
I should probably consider a return to blogging.
(* Considering *)
(Nothing Follows)
I should probably consider a return to blogging.
(* Considering *)
(Nothing Follows)
Wednesday, 4 August 2010
Spot the inconsistency
Can you spot the inconsistency between the two short descriptions below?
I'll give you some time before posting the answer.
I'll give you some time before posting the answer.
UPDATE: Only one is described as "unelected".
(Nothing Follows)
(Nothing Follows)
Tuesday, 3 August 2010
Defining Modern Keynesianism
For the modern left John Maynard Keynes is the source of all wisdom on matters of the economy.
Keynes was no dummy and his The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money is a major piece of work and serves as the economic bible for many economists to this day.
Being a major piece of work doesn't make it right, though. Marx was an intelligent man but still manage to bring to life The Communist Manifesto, which brought so much suffering to, especially, people in the 20th century. Like Tolkein, Marx and Keynes invented their own reality and then proceeded to solve all of the problems within it.
However, Keynes's reputation suffered a severe blow in the 1970s when major economies around the world went through a period of stagflation - the combination of high unemployment and high inflation - that Keynes said was impossible.
Due to this failure of Keynesianism, modern economists adjusted his theories and refer to themselves as "New-Keynesian", which replaced the term "Neo-Keynesian". As is the way in all branches of economics there are divergent opinions of which Krugman, Mankiw and Stiglitz are three such examples.
But how do they differ from the plain, old, vanilla Keynesian of days of yore?
Anyone who has even the shallowest understanding of economics will have heard of the term "pump priming", which comes from Keynes's theory that when economic activity slows the government can "prime the pump" by spending money to stimulate the economy.
"How does that differ from what Krugman is saying?", I hear you ask.
Here's the only real difference between Keynes and the Modern Keynesian...
Keynes believed that governments should create a fund into which surpluses would be placed when times were good so that those funds could be used when times were slow.
Saving for a rainy day, as my grandmother used to say.
Instead of using a pool of surplus funds as the source of government stimulus, Modern Keynesians use the next generation of taxpayer in the form of government deficit.
And that's all there is to it.
Modern Keynesianism is about giving the bill to your kids.
That's why Keynes has made a comeback; it provides political cover to those governments whose preference is to spend money rather than reduce in size.
Yet another example of the deep immorality of left wing policies and their ruinous effect on the world.
(Nothing Follows)
Keynes was no dummy and his The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money is a major piece of work and serves as the economic bible for many economists to this day.
Being a major piece of work doesn't make it right, though. Marx was an intelligent man but still manage to bring to life The Communist Manifesto, which brought so much suffering to, especially, people in the 20th century. Like Tolkein, Marx and Keynes invented their own reality and then proceeded to solve all of the problems within it.
However, Keynes's reputation suffered a severe blow in the 1970s when major economies around the world went through a period of stagflation - the combination of high unemployment and high inflation - that Keynes said was impossible.
Due to this failure of Keynesianism, modern economists adjusted his theories and refer to themselves as "New-Keynesian", which replaced the term "Neo-Keynesian". As is the way in all branches of economics there are divergent opinions of which Krugman, Mankiw and Stiglitz are three such examples.
But how do they differ from the plain, old, vanilla Keynesian of days of yore?
Anyone who has even the shallowest understanding of economics will have heard of the term "pump priming", which comes from Keynes's theory that when economic activity slows the government can "prime the pump" by spending money to stimulate the economy.
"How does that differ from what Krugman is saying?", I hear you ask.
Here's the only real difference between Keynes and the Modern Keynesian...
Keynes believed that governments should create a fund into which surpluses would be placed when times were good so that those funds could be used when times were slow.
Saving for a rainy day, as my grandmother used to say.
Instead of using a pool of surplus funds as the source of government stimulus, Modern Keynesians use the next generation of taxpayer in the form of government deficit.
And that's all there is to it.
Modern Keynesianism is about giving the bill to your kids.
That's why Keynes has made a comeback; it provides political cover to those governments whose preference is to spend money rather than reduce in size.
Yet another example of the deep immorality of left wing policies and their ruinous effect on the world.
(Nothing Follows)
Wednesday, 28 July 2010
Putting the US deficit into perspective
Need to raise revenue for the government?
That's easy, simply tax the rich.
The United States, like the majority of Western nations, is spending itself into oblivion at worst and massive civil strife at best.
Is it actually possible to increase taxes on the rich and deal with the debt (assuming that there's no impact on employment or investment)?
I thought, why not simply confiscate all of the wealth that the rich have? That ought to solve all of the problems. Right?
I looked up the Forbes list of world's billionaires that are domiciled in the United States and are doing business and paying taxes there.
The richest person on the 395 name list is Bill Gates with $53B, followed by Warren Buffett with $47B and a gap back to Larry Ellinson at $28B.
Now, here's the kicker - and the sobering reality check for the soak-the-rich left - if you confiscated ALL of the wealth of these 395 people in order to fund the debt (which means it would need to be sold to overseas interests, of course, as there'd be nobody rich enough in the US to buy it anymore) then how much would you raise?
Ready?
1.328 trillion dollars.
You'd still need to find another $143B to break even for the year! And your wealth creators have now got nothing! Good luck with that...
Here's another way of looking at that $1.471 trillion deficit.
Consider the following: there are 113,146,000 households in the US, which means that in just one year each household now has an extra $13,000 added to its debt. No wonder the Congressional Budget Office describes the debt situation as unsustainable.
Competition from emerging economies in China, India and Brazil, coupled with declining birth rates, undermine the modern Western (immoral) indulgence of giving people money who haven't earned it while putting the bill onto the next generation...and the one after that...in a gigantic, populate or perish, Ponzi scheme.
2010 is a momentous year in world history, I believe, as history will mark it down as the year that the welfare state, in its current form, ended.
(Nothing Follows)
That's easy, simply tax the rich.
The United States, like the majority of Western nations, is spending itself into oblivion at worst and massive civil strife at best.
There is some good economic news. The red ink the US is swimming in is not as bad as projected in February. Yes, at $1.471 trillion, it's still huge – 10 percent of the nation's gross domestic product – but an improvement of $84 billion from earlier estimates.So, how the heck much is 1.4 trillion dollars?
But bad news still looms large. In the next fiscal year, according to the mid-season review released by the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Friday, the US deficit will be $150 billion more than earlier projections. It is expected to come in at $1.416 trillion, or 9.2 percent of GDP.
The White House, which released the change in budget estimates, was careful not to overplay the changing numbers.
“These are not substantial changes and nothing we want to make too big a deal about,” said Peter Orszag, director of the OMB in a press call with reporters. “The economy remains weaker than we would like and the unemployment rate higher than we would like.”
Is it actually possible to increase taxes on the rich and deal with the debt (assuming that there's no impact on employment or investment)?
I thought, why not simply confiscate all of the wealth that the rich have? That ought to solve all of the problems. Right?
I looked up the Forbes list of world's billionaires that are domiciled in the United States and are doing business and paying taxes there.
The richest person on the 395 name list is Bill Gates with $53B, followed by Warren Buffett with $47B and a gap back to Larry Ellinson at $28B.
Now, here's the kicker - and the sobering reality check for the soak-the-rich left - if you confiscated ALL of the wealth of these 395 people in order to fund the debt (which means it would need to be sold to overseas interests, of course, as there'd be nobody rich enough in the US to buy it anymore) then how much would you raise?
Ready?
1.328 trillion dollars.
You'd still need to find another $143B to break even for the year! And your wealth creators have now got nothing! Good luck with that...
Here's another way of looking at that $1.471 trillion deficit.
Consider the following: there are 113,146,000 households in the US, which means that in just one year each household now has an extra $13,000 added to its debt. No wonder the Congressional Budget Office describes the debt situation as unsustainable.
Competition from emerging economies in China, India and Brazil, coupled with declining birth rates, undermine the modern Western (immoral) indulgence of giving people money who haven't earned it while putting the bill onto the next generation...and the one after that...in a gigantic, populate or perish, Ponzi scheme.
2010 is a momentous year in world history, I believe, as history will mark it down as the year that the welfare state, in its current form, ended.
(Nothing Follows)
Sunday, 18 July 2010
Labor "moving forward" to victory
If there's been a more banal political slogan in Australian history than Labor's "moving forward" then please let me know.
The first poll published after the calling of the August 21 election comes from Galaxy and shows that the government holds on to its 52-48 lead.
I commented recently that before the last election, which Labor won with a 53-47 margin, their Betfair odds were $1.31.
The current odds are as follows:
The odds support the 52-48 poll so, unless one side or the other puts their foot in it big time, then we've got another three years of Labor government to look forward to. How much more debt will they be able to pile onto our kids? It's remarkable that the modern, "progressive" left has no care for the financial health of the economies of which they're supposed to be custodians.
(Nothing Follows)
The first poll published after the calling of the August 21 election comes from Galaxy and shows that the government holds on to its 52-48 lead.
I commented recently that before the last election, which Labor won with a 53-47 margin, their Betfair odds were $1.31.
The current odds are as follows:
The odds support the 52-48 poll so, unless one side or the other puts their foot in it big time, then we've got another three years of Labor government to look forward to. How much more debt will they be able to pile onto our kids? It's remarkable that the modern, "progressive" left has no care for the financial health of the economies of which they're supposed to be custodians.
(Nothing Follows)
Friday, 16 July 2010
The A-Z of the Labor government's incompetence
This one is doing the rounds of the Internet and highlights the absolute disaster that our Labor government has inflicted upon the poor, old taxpayer for the next umpteen years.
All they've done is to ensure that we will have a weaker economy over the next couple of decades than we otherwise would have. They have guaranteed higher interest rates and higher unemployment, though the effects of those are still to hit.
China's growth is said to be slowing. How much debt is this government going to have? $100B? $200B is probably closer.
It took 10 years to pay off Labor's previous $100B debt. How long will it take to pay it off this time around?
The implementation of left wing policies can only lead to unwelcome, bordering on immoral, outcomes.
(Nothing Follows)
Rarely has a government promised so much, spent so much, said so much, and launched so many nationwide programs, and delivered so little value for money and expectation. Two years of Kevin Rudd has produced 20 years of debt, and most of it cannot be blamed on the global financial crisis. This alphabet soup is self-inflicted.What amazes me is that Labor voters can read through this list and still manage to find positive things to say about the government such as the "Sorry" to the (non existent) Stolen Generations and, supposedly, keeping us out of recession.
Asylum seekers. Unless the government can show otherwise, it appears that about 98 per cent of asylum-seekers are getting Australian residency. In contrast, the latest figures from the United Nations refugee agency show most asylum applications worldwide are rejected. The bulging Christmas Island detention centre has become a grossly expensive sham and a mockery of a core election promise.
Beijing. Supposedly Rudd's strong point, the relationship with China deteriorated badly last year after a series of serious missteps with Beijing.
Computers in schools. A million computers promised to schools, one for every student. This turned out to be much harder than it sounded.
Debt and deficit. The Rudd government inherited a massive $90 billion financial firewall when it came to office, via a federal budget surplus, the Future Fund and two infrastructure funds. In two years the budget has gone from $20 billion in surplus to $58 billion in deficit. Net federal debt has gone from zero to a projection of between $130 billion and $180 billion. It took the previous government 10 years to dismantle the $96 billion debt mountain that it inherited. It took Rudd one year to build it back up again.
ETS. The Copenhagen climate conference was a disaster. Rudd's emissions trading scheme is abstract, complex, expensive and polls show about 80 per cent of Australians do not understand or trust it. A T-shirt produced by Newcastle steelworkers distils the political problem: "Rudd's ETS: Higher Prices. Lost Jobs. 0.001 degrees cooler."
Fuelwatch. Big promise, empty outcome.
Grocerywatch. Ditto.
Hospitals. Ditto.
India disaster. Last year Australia degraded relations with the two emerging Asian superpowers.
Juvenile justice. The plight of young Aborigines is worse than ever, with ideology trumping pragmatism. Children are shipped off to violent foster families while government exhibits a mesmerised inertia in the face of pockets of endemic violence.
Kaiser. The aptly named Mike Kaiser, former ALP Queensland state secretary and state MP, became the umpteenth poster boy for the Labor patronage machine this month by landing a $450,000-a-year lobbying job with the national broadband network. The job was not advertised.
League tables. The government's one-size-fits-all league tables for schools, plagued by glitches and misleading data, is another centralised scheme that serves as a substitute for tackling the union-imposed rigidities on teacher performance.
Migration. Permanent migration to Australia surged 550,000 during the first two years of the Rudd government, the highest two-year increase in history. This is at odds with the government's rhetoric on reducing Australia's carbon footprint. It was also never mentioned before the election.
National broadband network. Last year the Rudd government spent $17 million looking for a private partner to co-build the network. The process yielded nothing. The government will now build and operate the network itself at a cost of $43 billion. A money sink.
Opposition theft. The Rudd government inherited the strongest budget position and banking sector of any major Western economy, which protected Australia from the global financial crisis. The government pretends this was all its own work.
Power. The national solar power rebate is a political debacle. The GreenPower scheme has failed. The renewable energy trading certificates scheme is in disarray.
Question time. Question time has blown out by 50 per cent over its traditional running time because of long ministerial answers and incessant points of order, while the time devoted to answering real questions, rather than Dorothy Dixers, has shrunk to less than 30 per cent of question time; a blatant corruption of the process.
Roof insulation. Send in the fraud squad. A good idea gone bad. Rampant false billing and over-charging. Cowboys everywhere. People dead. Houses unsafe. Systemic overspending. A hapless bureaucracy detached from the realities of the building industry.
School spending. The $16 billion Building the Education Revolution scheme is bloated with systemic overspending and over-charging. The problems were encapsulated by a builder who told me: "My company is involved in the BER work and it involves mismanagement, overcharging, schools being railroaded into decisions not in their interests, all hidden behind a smokescreen. It is the country's most expensive political stunt ever." Another money sink.
Tax increases. The federal budget in May will begin to reveal the consequences of panic, hubris, overspending and waste as the government seeks to offset its profligacy with higher fees and taxes. Superannuation was just the start.
Union power. The unions, having bankrolled Labor's election campaign in 2007, have received their payback, with an increase in union rights and powers. Union muscle-flexing is back, from the mining sector to small business. Endemic corruption, blackmail and violence in the building industry was finally curbed by the Australian Building and Construction Commission. Julia Gillard is shutting it down.
Vanity. See B, K, O, Q and U.
Whitlamesque. Spendthrift programs. Empty rhetoric. Self-congratulation. Deficit spending. Debt blowout. Two years of the Rudd government produces 20 years of debt and poses the question: worse than Whitlam?
X Y Z Generations X, Y and Z They will be stuck with the bill.
All they've done is to ensure that we will have a weaker economy over the next couple of decades than we otherwise would have. They have guaranteed higher interest rates and higher unemployment, though the effects of those are still to hit.
China's growth is said to be slowing. How much debt is this government going to have? $100B? $200B is probably closer.
It took 10 years to pay off Labor's previous $100B debt. How long will it take to pay it off this time around?
The implementation of left wing policies can only lead to unwelcome, bordering on immoral, outcomes.
(Nothing Follows)
Friday, 2 July 2010
Ongoing collapse of the UK
Yet another example of the societal collapse in the UK:
These people are crazy and the UK is doomed.
Good to see that the kid herself is not in the least bit offended by it all, which must annoy those self-appointed overseers of society who make a living by being offended on behalf of everybody else.
(Nothing Follows)
A BBC commentator has apologised to a 16-year-old British tennis star after saying she had "puppy fat" on live television.Since when has it become politically incorrect to use the term 'puppy fat'???
David Mercer made the remark while discussing Laura Robson's weight as she played her second round juniors match at Wimbledon, The Sun newspaper reports.
"I suppose the one thing that I have at the back of my mind at the moment, is Laura mobile enough around the court?," Mercer said.
"Perhaps a little puppy fat at the moment, the sort of thing you'd expect her to lose as she concentrates on tennis full-time."
Robon said she was not fazed by the comments.
I've spoken to the guy who said it. It's not a big deal," Robson said.
"It's just his opinion. You know, I don't really care."
These people are crazy and the UK is doomed.
Good to see that the kid herself is not in the least bit offended by it all, which must annoy those self-appointed overseers of society who make a living by being offended on behalf of everybody else.
(Nothing Follows)
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