Monday, 4 August 2008

How can McCain be ahead of Obama in the polls?

How can it be that McCain now leads Obama in the opinion polls?
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.

This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3
A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.
Michael Dukakis and John Kerry, neither of whom were anywhere near as charismatic as Obama, both held huge leads for many months before the election before getting handily beaten on polling day.

Is the fact that McCain and Obama so close a bad thing for Obama given the Democrat's historical late drop in support?

I don't think so.

I reckon that this election is quite a bit different to anything in our lifetimes.

On the one hand you have a gnarled, grumpy candidate whose visage speaks to his experience.

On the other you have a youthful, charming, idealistic populist.

How voting groups will break close to polling day is anyone's guess. I suspect that it won't be a close result.

With more than $5M in the pool on Betfair, Obama is a short price $1.52 favourite with McCain an unlikely $3.10, though McCain has gained a bit of ground in recent days.

Obama has the entire mainstream media barracking for him. He has the support of huge financial backers on Wall Street, in Hollywood and from political manipulators such as George Soros.

How can he even be close in the poll?

Perhaps this has something to do with it...
Forty-six percent (46%) of voters nationwide now say that Obama views U.S. society as unfair and discriminatory. That’s up from 43% in July and 39% in June. By a three-to-one margin, American voters hold the opposite view and believe that our society is generally fair and decent
Americans may be a lot of things but I doubt that very many would vote for someone who thought that it was not a fair and decent place.

The next few months will be quite interesting to watch.

My money is still on Obama. The mainstream media will protect him as much as possible from his gaffes, inexperience, leftist positions and appalling personal associations.

(Nothing Follows)


Anonymous said...

Ok, Jack. You heard it from me first.

Obama hasn't a prayer of winning this election. Americans just won't vote for a dyed-in-the-wool loopy lib. And Obama is a hard core leftie radical.

Moreover, the Wilder effect is in full play. During the primaries, Obama consistently over-polled because whites told pollsters both going into and coming out of voting that they were going to/did vote for Obama....but didn't.

And Jewish voters who in large part are very reliable Dem voters just aren't going to vote for the shvarze. It's really that simple. In the Southeast part of Florida, in NYC, MI and PA where a concentration of Jewish voters can always be expected to vote, just a shift of few percent will make a huge difference in the vote margins.

And white male blue collar Reagan dems won't vote for him either as probably a good percent of Hillary's older white females.

While maybe a certain small portion of it might be attributable to racial issues, they just aren't comfortable with the guy.

So he's left with the keening adoring youts and the MoveOn crowd.


Jack Lacton said...


On face value, I would agree.

However, I wonder whether the US political middle hasn't been battered a bit to the left.

The Dems will get a big turnout courtesy of energised young people, which is not normally the case. They tend to stay home. That may make up for the fact that others won't vote for him.

The other issue is that McCain is such an uninspiring, crotchety old figure.

It's Obama's to lose. He seems to be doing a good job of that, too.

Anonymous said...

There is no question that, as Rush puts it, this election is a referendum on Obama.

And he just isn't surviving the test. He can't possibly win if the polling has him even with McCain among registered voters. If you figure in expected voters, it's even worse.

One of the hard lessons that must be learned is that voting patterns are terribly difficult to break. If a guy usually votes in a certain kind of election, you can generally count on him to vote in that kind of election.

If that guy doesn't vote in a certain kind of election, that guy can very rarely be induced to vote in that certain kind of election.

The youts, for all the effort expended to energize them just don't show up.

At this stage of the Kerry campaign and the Gore campaign, you would have sworn on your momma's head that the youts were going to swarm the polling places on election day.

But they didn't.

There might be an uptick in this election, but it won't be the tsunami the mainstream media wants us to think it will be.