The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.Critically...
This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3
A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.Michael Dukakis and John Kerry, neither of whom were anywhere near as charismatic as Obama, both held huge leads for many months before the election before getting handily beaten on polling day.
Is the fact that McCain and Obama so close a bad thing for Obama given the Democrat's historical late drop in support?
I don't think so.
I reckon that this election is quite a bit different to anything in our lifetimes.
On the one hand you have a gnarled, grumpy candidate whose visage speaks to his experience.
On the other you have a youthful, charming, idealistic populist.
How voting groups will break close to polling day is anyone's guess. I suspect that it won't be a close result.
With more than $5M in the pool on Betfair, Obama is a short price $1.52 favourite with McCain an unlikely $3.10, though McCain has gained a bit of ground in recent days.
Obama has the entire mainstream media barracking for him. He has the support of huge financial backers on Wall Street, in Hollywood and from political manipulators such as George Soros.
How can he even be close in the poll?
Perhaps this has something to do with it...
Forty-six percent (46%) of voters nationwide now say that Obama views U.S. society as unfair and discriminatory. That’s up from 43% in July and 39% in June. By a three-to-one margin, American voters hold the opposite view and believe that our society is generally fair and decentAmericans may be a lot of things but I doubt that very many would vote for someone who thought that it was not a fair and decent place.
The next few months will be quite interesting to watch.
My money is still on Obama. The mainstream media will protect him as much as possible from his gaffes, inexperience, leftist positions and appalling personal associations.