Monday, 27 August 2007

More on those pesky, inaccurate climate models

Do those people not members of the Climate Brown Shirt brigade who support the hypothesis that we're in a period of 'unprecedented' climate change understand that their beliefs are based on climate models that have never been right? Not even once. That trillions of dollars will be spent on the output of these profoundly wrong models?

Fortunately, the air has been somewhat let out of the climate change sails as more and more evidence comes to light that the whole proposition is based on dodgy data at best and downright fraud at worst.

I've pointed out some of the issues with climate models previously and, as I said a few weeks' back, if 'the science is settled' then why does the IPCC need 17 climate models when only one should do?

One of the most strident critics of the anthropogenic global warming proposition has been Christopher Monkton, 3rd Viscount Monkton of Brenchley, a former scientific advisor to Margaret Thatcher. In this article he demonstrates that observations fail to match model predictions on one of the most important points - the lower troposphere.
The significant shortfall between the magnitude of modeled and observed altitude-vs-latitude trends of decadal temperature increase in the tropics. Prediction and observation overlap only in the first mile of the atmosphere, demonstrating that the observed temperature forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions is considerably less than the forcing predicted by the models and accepted by the IPCC.

The 20-model mean predicted temperature trend (heavy red curve) ± 1 standard deviation (thin red curves) is plotted against observations from RSS 2.1 (yellow triangles); the University of Alabama at Huntsville’s UAH 5.2 (yellow diamonds) Hadley Centre’s AT2 (green curve); IGRA (light blue curve); RATPAC (dark blue curve); and Global Historical Climate Network surface trend (blue square) (Douglass et al., 2007).
A report by the US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 2006), says –

“For longer-timescale temperature changes over 1979 to 1999, only one of four observed upper-air data sets has larger tropical warming aloft than in the surface records. All model runs with surface warming over this period show amplified warming aloft.

“These results could arise due to errors common to all models; to significant non-climatic influences remaining within some or all of the observational data sets, leading to biased long-term trend estimates; or a combination of these factors. The new evidence in this Report (model-to-model consistency of amplification results, the large uncertainties in observed tropospheric temperature trends, and independent physical evidence supporting substantial tropospheric warming) favors the second explanation.

“A full resolution of this issue will require reducing the large observational uncertainties that currently exist. These uncertainties make it difficult to determine whether models still have common, fundamental errors in their representation of the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature change.”
Climate models have already been shown to overestimate by a factor of more than three the amount of water vapour in the air due to increasing temperature. Water vapour is the major feedback mechanism under climate models so the fact that observations don't match predictions makes a serious dent in their credibility.

Now we have more proof that reality doesn't match the models' predictions - and it's not even a close miss.

The credibility of climate science as a discipline gets closer and closer to eugenics every day.

1 comment:

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